Showing posts with label Property. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Property. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

On CDL Chief Calling on Gov't To Ease Property Curbs


For the second time in five months, the executive chairman of Hong Leong Group Singapore and City Development Limited (CDL), Kwek Leng Beng, has called on the government to review property restriction measures here

He told the press on Tuesday that “foreigners were choosing to plough their investment dollars into countries like Britain, Australia and the US over Singapore, while Singaporeans have been investing abroad.”

klb
Image from theonlinecitizen

Now, anyone who has an iota of common sense will know that advice from a property developer to the government to remove curbs on property speculation is prone to bias.

Kwek Leng Beng goes on to state that, “We are losing these investments to other countries even though these foreign properties have a higher risk profile,” Mr Kwek told The Straits Times. “It is unlikely these investment dollars will return to Singapore.”

Although there is probably some truth to Kwek Leng Beng's statement, the bigger question is whether foreign investment in property is desirable for the country.

Yes, investments in properties create jobs and contributes heavily to the GDP. If party A buys a Condo from the developer at $1M and sells it to party B for $2M within 1 year, the GDP for the economy increases by $3M. After factoring for agent commissions, lawyer's conveyance fees, the contribution to the GDP is slightly higher. Add to that the various taxes, stamp duties and fees which contributes to the government's coffers, it is easy to see how attracting foreign investments in property can be a lucrative business.  After all 3 out of the 10 richest persons in Singapore have their source of wealth derived from property, with the top 2 having their wealth derived almost entirely from property

However, the jobs created in this industry are few and the technological advancements, even fewer. This is exacerbated when it is just the same property exchanging hands, multiple times without any new product or services created for the society.

Despite all these, foreign investments in property might do more harm than good to a society with scarce land space and an increasingly densely populated population. Encouraging property speculation results in runaway property prices that prices out many locals from home ownership. Although, Singapore has managed this well by providing government housing through the HDB, the very high difference in land sales prices between land earmarked for HDB development and land earmarked for private property development gives the government a lot of incentive to prefer one type of land sales over the other. Furthermore, it discourages upwardly mobile locals from owning private property, leading them to compete with "less upwardly mobile" locals for government property.

Instead of encouraging foreign investments in property, we should encourage foreign investments in businesses which creates jobs, technological advancements and products and services which benefits the society at large.

Compared to US, where none of the top 10 richest persons derive their richest from property, we can see a very glaring difference between the 2 countries. This is one reason why despite strong push from the government, a solid infrastructure network and a highly intelligent workforce, we do not have breakthrough entrepreneurial companies like Facebook or Google incubated on this island. After all, who wants to take the risk of entrepreneurship when rents are sky high and you can easily make a lot of money as a property agent. Why would any foreign investor, invest in a local start-up when investing in property gives much better yield?

To add insult to injury, our tech entrepreneurs, Sim Wong Hoo and Tan Min Liang. have to run off to California to find angel investors willing to invest what would later become the world renown companies, Creative and Razer.

End of the day, we do want foreign investments in Singapore. We want foreign investments in business that creates jobs for Singaporeans. We want foreign investments in technology to create technological advancements in Singapore. We want foreign investments in arts, culture and sports to make Singapore a vibrant city. But we do not want a repeat of the Tulips mania by having foreign investors exchange overly priced property around like a game of musical chairs.

Back in the 70s, Dr. Goh Keng Swee laid the foundation stones for Singapore's economy by promoting foreign direct investments by multi national companies to Jurong Industrial Estate and not by building thousands of condos for foreigners to invest in, because he knew that this was the kind of investment that would lead to Singaporeans developing more skills, create jobs and improve standards of living. Let's move away from speculative property investments and direct foreign investments to projects that will have better positive externalities for the society.

L.A.M.

If you liked this, you might also be interested in:

 On Value of HDB flats at end of 99 year Lease 

 Property Valuation Tool

 

 



Thursday, February 13, 2014

L.A.M. on How Much Does it Cost to Build a HDB Flat

I refer to the Today article which states that a Singapore-listed construction group has won a contract worth $98m to build HDB flats at Vine Grove @ Yishun. The BTO project will involve the construction, completion and maintenance of 5 13-storey blocks and one seven-storey block, comprising 696 residential units in all.

Now this article along with some sleuthing has provided very good fodder for me to determine whether the government is profiting extensively from construction of "government" housing.

Now lets do some simple math:

Costs of Building Construction:                                                                                       $98,000,000.00

Selling and Administration Costs:                                                                                est $2,000,000.00
Housing Rebates: Assume rebates of 15K per unit                                                          $10,440,000.00


Total Costs:                                                                                                                    $110,440,000.00








HDB Revenue:                        
2 Room Flat Type 1 (48 Units, average price of 85.5K)                                                    $4,104,000.00
2 Room Flat Type 2 (132 Units, average price of 106K)                                                 $13,992,000.00
3 Room Flat (192 Units, average price of 180K)                                                             $34,560,000.00
4 Room Flat (324 Units, average price of 285.5K)                                                          $92,502,000.00
Total                                                                                                                               $145,158,000.00

IRAS Revenue( Buyer Stamp Duty):
2 Room Flat Type 1 (48 Units, average price of 85.5K)                                                         $41,040.00
2 Room Flat Type 2 (132 Units, average price of 106K)                                                      $139,920.00
3 Room Flat (192 Units, average price of 180K)                                                                  $345,600.00
4 Room Flat (324 Units, average price of 285.5K)                                                             $1,266,840.00
Total                                                                                                                                   $1,793,400.00

Total Revenue:                                                                                                                $146,961,400.00

Net Income:                                                                                                                       $36,511,400.00
Operating Margin:                                                                                                                         33.06%

Note that the above has not taken into account any land sales costs (which I assume is a left pocket to right pocket arrangement between HDB and SLA). Based on the above, I would say that the margin made by HDB+IRAS isn't exorbitant at 33.06%.

Is HDB making money off Singaporeans? I can't say for certain but it is definitely much higher than Koh Brothers Group which has an profit margin of only 5.39% (based on information from macroaxis.)

However, if we were to take land costs into consideration, then HDB would definitely be making a loss as a similar plot of land in Yishun would cost more than 36 million. So in a sense, Khaw Boon Wan wouldn't be completely wrong if he complained about how HDB is making a loss but the bigger question is whether SLA should be charging HDB so much on land costs, if the land is used for public housing. Similarly, would SLA charge Mindef so much for the large amounts of land they occupy?

PS: The above analysis is based on publicly sourced information. Where information is not available, I have made assumptions such as ignoring land sales costs as well as the selling and administrative expense. If you feel that there is anyway in which the analysis can be improved, please leave a comment below.

L.A.M.

If you liked this, click below for more tools:

NRIC Suffix Checker

Property Valuation Tool

When to Sell My Flat Tool

Military Expenditure Simulator

Monday, February 10, 2014

L.A.M. on Value of HDB flats at end of 99 year Lease

So I read on Gerald Giam's blog that Khaw Boon Wan, Minister for National Development had confirmed in Parliament that the value of flats will be zero at the end of their 99 year lease. He also indicated that the selection of sites and pace of SERS depended on factors including the site’s redevelopment potential. Implicit in what he said was that SERS is not a scheme intended solely to replace old flats reaching the end of their lease.

To me, this is a very disturbing development because so far, the market has been pricing HDB flats as if it had an infinite lease and the resale price index has increased from 33.6 in 1990 to 201.7 in 2013. (An astounding 5 fold increase).

Since this means that a house becomes a depreciating asset towards the end of the lease, then it begs the question of when is the ideal point to sell a flat. In the graph below, we see that there is a high point for a typical leasehold property where everything literally goes downhill after that.

(Modeled graph based on property 40 years into it's lease with 59 years remaining and based on a very modest future asset appreciation rate of 1.6% p.a.)

So there are 2 forces at work with regards to one's property.

1) Asset appreciation. Due to demand and supply forces (more demand than supply), asset prices (property) have been increasing over the years, leading to asset appreciation. This is the force which causes the value of a resale unit to grow. For the model I created, I assumed that the asset appreciation rate is constant.

2) Lease amortization. As lease on your property counts down to zero, the value of the property decreases. In the model, lease amortization increases as the number of years of lease remaining decreases to zero.

So in order to answer the question, I developed a model where a user can input the details of his flat, such as the lease commencement year, and valuation of property and determine the ideal year to sell his flat. (See download link below)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9IgWwXHEwE6b1VBck9DWHNTMm8/edit?usp=sharing

How to use the file:

Enter the input variables into the following cells
C3: Original Lease. Usually 99 years for HDB flats
C4: Lease Commencement Year. Can be found in title deed
C5: This Year. Which ever year this is.
C8: Value of property based on Valuation (excluding COV)

I have taken the following assumptions:

1) Property appreciation rate based on the weighted average growth rate based on the resale price index with more current years having a higher weightage than earlier years

2) Long Term Bond Yield based on information from Singapore Government 10Y bond historical rates taken from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/government-bond-yield

PS: Although the model is able to determine the ideal year in which to sell your flat, it doesn't mean that you will be able to get a ready buyer on that ideal year. Depending on economic and market conditions, it might be better to plan ahead and time your exit 5-10 years earlier than the ideal year. The model also doesn't fully capture the effects of potential future government policies. This is just an amateur model based on my assumptions, please feel free to comment below if you feel this model can be improved in any way.

For a property valuation tool, see my other blog post: http://johnislam.blogspot.in/2014/02/lams-property-valuation-tool.html

Saturday, February 8, 2014

L.A.M's Property Valuation Tool

I have been doing abit of house hunting and along the way there were many variables to consider, so I decided to just create a simple valuation tool to help me to decide whether to consider purchasing the property (Download Link Below).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9IgWwXHEwE6OTh0X3BqTFRUS1U/edit?usp=sharing



Brief Description:

This tool uses the comparable transactions method with adjustments to valuate a property.

How to use:

1) Select the name of the property in cell A1.

2) Click on Download Comparable Transactions button (macros need to be enabled for this, on how to enable macros see link: http://office.microsoft.com/en-sg/excel-help/enable-macros-to-run-HP001119579.aspx)

Note: This process will download a list of comparable properties from the URA website. Please note that it will take about 10 seconds. Once complete, the following message below will be shown:



3) Input the input variables of the property you are looking at in the light green cells (Cells B9-D9, F9, B22 and K4 to K9)

4) Based on your inputs and your comparable properties, cell B23 will return a Y or N value to the question of whether you should consider the property.

5) To find your breakeven transaction price, you can click on the Breakeven Price button and the value will be generated.

How it works:

This tool downloads a list of comparable transactions from the URA website and then does adjustments based on the floor size (in sqft), lease remaining (in years), floor category of the unit and other adjustment factors. After this, a market discount is added which is determined by the preset input in cell K6.

Finally, based on a the asking price, a yield is determined. If the yield is higher than your hurdle rate, then  the property is worth the toolkit considers that the unit is worth considering.

PS: This is just an amateur tool, designed by me to valuate properties based on my own assumptions and consideration sets, if you have any feedback or comments on how to improve this tool, feel free to comment in the comment section below. Another point to note, this tool only applies to resale Private/EC properties in Singapore.

L.A.M.

For a tool on when is the ideal time to sell your leasehold unit, see my other blogpost: http://johnislam.blogspot.in/2014/02/lam-on-value-of-hdb-flats-at-end-of-99.html